Recovery in global air traffic may be delayed to 2024: IATA

Global air traffic won't recover from COVID-19 until 2024, says airline body

The International Air Transport Association (IATA), which represents 290 global airlines, on Tuesday revised its forecast on recovery of passenger traffic and said it may take 2024 for the passenger traffic to recover to 2019 levels. That is one year later than previously forecast.

Passenger traffic is taking longer than expected to recover.

For 2020 as a whole, IATA now expects a 63-percent drop in air traffic, worse than its previous forecast of 55 percent, Pearce said.

Stay informed: Sign up for our daily aviation news digest.

Global passenger traffic during June 2020 remained 86.5% lower than in the same month in 2019. That is only "slightly improved" from a 91.% contraction in May, according to the IATA.

The pisspoor handling of the pandemic in the United States, as well as increasing outbreaks in developing countries, are also contributing factors that is slowing the predicted return of global air travel.

The slowing rate of recovery in air traffic numbers is based on several factors.

"Although developed economies outside of the United States have been largely successful in containing the spread of the virus, renewed outbreaks have occurred in these economies, and in China", the IATA noted.

Besides renewed outbreaks, travel is also being held back by weak consumer confidence and constrained travel budgets at companies that are struggling.

Consumer confidence in air travel has been weakened.

There is some "pent-up demand exists for VFR (visiting friends and relatives) and leisure travel" but "consumer confidence is weak in the face of concerns over job security and rising unemployment, as well as risks of catching COVID-19".

Domestic and short-haul traffic is recovering faster. That means that passenger numbers will recover quicker than RPK, which is not expected to reach 219 levels until 2024.

In a statement, IATA CEO Alexandre de Juniac detailed the reasoning behind the extended timeline, stating "Passenger traffic hit bottom in April, but the strength of the upturn has been very weak". The IATA attributed the improvement to increasing domestic travel within China.

"Cargo is, by far, healthier than the passenger markets but doing business remains exceptionally challenging", stated de Juniac. There has been a rise in cases in Germany, which had earlier done better than many other countries in mitigating the outbreak. "All of this points to a longer recovery period and more pain for the industry and the global economy".

"Summer - our industry's busiest season - is passing by rapidly; with little chance for an upswing in worldwide air travel unless governments move quickly and decisively to find alternatives to border closures, confidence-destroying stop-start re-openings and demand-killing quarantine".

What do you think of the pessimistic outlook for air travel?



Latest news

Coronavirus: Excess Covid-19 deaths during Europe's outbreak highest in England
It is the first time they have compared mortality rates in different countries to measure the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Regions in Spain , Italy and England made up the top 20 areas across Europe with the highest recorded peak mortality rates.

Dr Fauci Gives Important Advice Amid Evidence Coronavirus Can Get Into Eyes
As of Thursday afternoon, that number has increased to 151,650 deaths, among more than 7.4 million cases of COVID-19. On person tweeted: "I can just see it now...everyone walking around with swimming goggles plus a mask".

Fitting farewell as Brentford storm into final
Brentford , which is moving to a new 17,250-capacity ground, will face either Cardiff or Fulham in the 4 August final at Wembley. Bryan Mbeumo added the third goal just after halftime, before Rhian Brewster pulled one back for Swansea .

Three-quarters of adults with COVID-19 have heart damage after recovery
The third cluster composed of headaches, loss of appetite, loss of smell, diarrhea, sore throat, chest pain, but without cough. At that stage, however, very little was known about how and why the virus affects an infected person's sense of smell.

The Ellen DeGeneres Show under investigation following staff complaints
Stage crew members said they were left without work while the show was taped from one of DeGeneres' Southern California mansions. In another incident, a writer for the show told her, "I'm sorry, I only know the names of the white people who work here".

Other news