COVID-19: Africa CDC provides fresh updates on Coronavirus in continent


The 35-page study outlines two scenarios for the trajectory of the pandemic - a "realistic" scenario in which the pandemic lasts until July but Africa "is not very affected", and a "pessimistic" scenario in which it lasts until August and Africa suffers more.

The study also shows that the pandemic could lead to the budget deficits of African oil exporters doubling this year as well as their economies shrinking three per cent on average.

Foreign direct investment (FDI) could drop by up to 15 per cent as projects are delayed or cancelled and development assistance or aid could also be strained as donor countries themselves find it hard to commit as much money.

It's unlikely that the 3.4 percent economic growth rate for the continent, forecast a year ago by the African Development Bank, will be achieved because of the COVID 19 crisis, and new models show negative values.

The influence on employment will likely be dramatic.

"Nearly 20 million jobs, both in the formal and informal sectors, are threatened with destruction on the continent if the situation continues", the analysis said. The loss in value is estimated at around US$270 billion, while the fight against the coronavirus itself is expected to cost an estimated $130 billion.

Africa's oil producers, which have seen the value of their crude exports plunge in past weeks, will be among the worst hit.

Tumbling oil prices will disrupt the economies of big oil producing countries notably Algeria, Angola, Cameroon, Chad, Equatorial Guinea, Gabon, Ghana, Nigeria, and Congo Brazzaville.

Africa has in recent times been among the many quickest rising areas on this planet for tourism. Governments across Africa have closed their borders and placed countries or cities under lockdown to prevent widespread contagion in a region with under-resourced health-care systems.

Countries, where tourism constitutes a large part of GDP, will see their economies contract by an average of 3.3 percent this year.

For many African economies, remittances sent from overseas form a significant portion of cash flow.

"With economic activity in the doldrums in many advanced and emerging market countries, remittances to Africa could experience significant declines".

The team said that by providing insights to the pattern of COVID-19 transmission into Africa, the infographic aims to further inform the global efforts in combating the pandemic on the continent. However, Africa's major tourism spots Seychelles, Cape Verde, Mauritius and Gambia will shrink at least seven per cent.



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