Tropical development in Gulf possible by next week

Tropical wave could affect western Caribbean

A broad and unorganized area of low pressure sits over the northwestern Caribbean near the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras.

Invest 91 L has been given an 80% chance of development within the next 2 days, and a 90% chance within the next 5 days.

Longer range forecast data is in general agreement that Invest 91 will move north into an environment more favorable for strengthening over the central Gulf of Mexico by Tuesday or Wednesday. If the system were to reach tropical storm intensity, it would take the name Micheal.

At 8 a.m. Saturday, forecasters said the system was producing rainy weather from Central America across the western Caribbean to Hispaniola.

The National Hurricane Center says that this storm is likely to develop tropical characteristics in the next two-to-five days, at which point it would be named 'Michael'.

According to Weather Underground's Cat 6 blog, a similar system became Tropical Depression 16 at this time past year and would later become Hurricane Nate, which made landfall in Louisiana as a Category 1 storm on October 7. At the very least, the Florida Peninsula could expect breezy conditions, increased rain chances and the potential for localized flooding. Don't look for much relief from the heat as highs drop only into the upper 80s and lows low-mid 70s.

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