Oil continues mild rebound with production cuts a possibility

Oil under pressure from OPEC, US output

Currently, nothing is working out in favor of the oil bulls, however, there is a possible scenario, which might see the price rocketing higher and even to a three digit number.

Crude contined to rebound mildly in Asia on Tuesday, with the possibility of productiong curbs in Lybia and Nigeria and a shrinking of US stockpiles lifting markets. This has prompted more talk among producers about including them in the pact.

The two African producers, which were exempted from supply cuts because of internal strife but are now recovering, have been invited to the July 24 meeting to discuss their production outlook, Kuwait's Oil Minister Issam Almarzooq said in Istanbul.

The industry needs to see sustained inventory draws and U.S. rig count declines or evidence of further Opec cuts for prices to rally, and Goldman said a failure to do so means WTI oil prices could fall below $40 per barrel.

OPEC exported 25.92 million barrels per day (bpd) in June, 450,000 bpd more than in May and 1.9 million bpd more than a year earlier. The Saudi production increase was probably just a normal seasonal adjustment, he said. Brent crude oil futures rose 0.4% to $46.8 per barrel on the same day. They're not a member of Opec, and they're not about to control production in an effort to keep prices up.

In recent months, production has risen strongly, offsetting some one-third of the cuts made so far this year as part of the agreement.

The start of this year saw a significant decline in the oil inventories and the trend is likely to continue all throughout the year.

Low complexity Russian refineries saw a drastic margin drop to $1/mt (or $0.14/b) from $60/mt in 2014, analysts at VTB Capital said in a research note Wednesday. Reuters also saw these figures.

As a result, oil companies sent more crude for exports, limiting supplies to domestic refineries.

Given the current state of the oil market, that may not be enough.

In refined products, RBOB heating oil futures remained flat at 1.454 a gallon at the NYMEX. Around the world, conventional oil discovered in the last four years fell 50%-compared to the previous four years.

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